| 摘要: |
| 通过阐述石油价格、石油市场、石油公司等的行业现状，论证"石油正在迈向夕阳产业"和"石油行业辉煌不再"。然而石油在发展，石油勘探开发正在发生8个方面的转变：从储油气层到生油气层，从局部评估到大面积评估，从构造油气藏、岩性油气藏到非常规连续型油气藏，从高点找油气到下洼、下坡找油气，从常规油气资源到非常规油气资源，从中深层到深层、超深层，从中浅海到深海、超深海，从常规地带到极端地带。石油仍然具有较强的生命力，石油行业的衰退是个缓慢的过程。全石油时代难以再现，世界将进入后石油时代，石油行业开始转型升级。面对这样的现状与趋势，中国应努力保持国内原油"两亿吨"稳产，加快开发南海油气资源，低成本开发国内巨大的低品位油气资源，提高能源转型的自觉性，快速进入替代能源领域，谋求转型发展。 |
| 关键词: 石油价格 石油勘探开发趋势 非常规油气资源 后石油时代 对策 替代能源 转型升级 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1673-5005.2018.04.001 |
| 分类号:TE122.1 |
| 文献标识码:A |
| 基金项目:中国工程院重点咨询项目（2017-XY-14） |
|
| Development trends of oil industry and China's countermeasures |
|
HU Wenrui1, BAO Jingwei2
|
|
(1.China National Petroleum Corporation, Beijing 100724, China;2.PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration ＆ Development, Beijing 100083, China)
|
| Abstract: |
| By elaborating the current situation of oil price, oil market and oil company, the paper demonstrates that "oil is moving towards the sunset-industry" and "the brilliance of the oil industry may be no longer". However, oil is developing and eight changes are taking place in oil exploration and development, including from oil and gas reservoirs to source rocks, from trap to large area reservoir, from structural reservoirs to lithological reservoirs to unconventional continuous reservoirs, from high quality oil and gas resources to low quality reservoirs, from conventional hydrocarbon to unconventional hydrocarbon, from middle depth layers to deep and ultra-deep layers, from shallow and middle depth sea to deep and ultra-deep sea, and from conventional zone to extreme zone. Oil still has strong vitality and the decline of oil industry will is a slow process. The brilliant era of oil maybe hard to reproduce and the world will come into the post oil era and the oil industry will start a new journey of transformation and upgrading. In the face of such current situation and trends, China should strive to maintain the stable oil production of 200 million tons for domestic oilfields, accelerate the development of oil and gas resources in South China Sea, develop domestic low grade oil and gas resources at low cost, improve the consciousness and consciousness of energy transformation, and quickly enter the field of alternative energy to seek transformation and development. |
| Key words: price of oil trends of petroleum exploration and development unconventional oil & gas post oil era countermeasures alternative energy transformation and upgrading |
