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基于贝叶斯方法的高含硫井口气液分离器动态风险分析
谭清磊,陈国明,畅元江,付建民
0
(中国石油大学海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东青岛 266580;青岛理工大学安全工程系,山东青岛 266520)
摘要:
传统的定量风险分析方法不能有效利用井口分离器的运行状态数据进行动态风险分析,从而导致评估结果易于偏离实际。构建事件树模型模拟分离器异常事件的发展过程,然后基于贝叶斯方法利用事故先兆数据动态分析分离器安全屏障的失效概率和异常事件后果发生概率,并采用模糊损失率的方法量化事故后果造成的损失,进而完成对分离器的动态风险分析。结果表明,新提出的基于贝叶斯方法的高含硫井口气液分离器动态风险分析方法克服了传统风险评价方法的不足,可动态评估事故发生概率,并可动态反映分离器的风险变化,能够为高含硫井口气液分离器等相关设备的风险分析与控制提供参考。
关键词:  事件树  事故先兆数据  贝叶斯方法  模糊损失率  动态风险分析  分离器
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-5005.2013.06.021
投稿时间:2013-03-22
基金项目:国家科技重大专项(2008ZX05017)
Dynamic risk analysis of high-sulfur wellhead gas-liquid separator based on Bayesian method
TAN Qing-lei,CHEN Guo-ming,CHANG Yuan-jiang,FU Jian-min
(Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China;Department of Safety Engineering, Qingdao Technological University, Qingdao 266520, China)
Abstract:
Traditional methods of quantitative risk analysis can 't effectively take advantage of operational status data of wellhead separator, and easily make assessment results deviate from the actual situation. The event tree model was established to simulate the progress of abnormal events of wellhead separator, and safety barrier failure probability and abnormal event consequence likelihood of wellhead separator were dynamically analyzed using accident precursor data based on Bayesian method. The fuzzy loss rate method was employed to quantify the consequence of the accident loss. Then dynamic risk analysis of wellhead separator was performed. The results show that the proposed method of dynamic risk analysis for wellhead separator overcomes the disadvantages of traditional risk assessment methods. It can dynamically assess accident probability and dynamically reflect risk change of the separator to provide references for risk analysis and control of high-sulfur wellhead gas-liquid separator and other related equipments.
Key words:  event tree  accident precursor data  Bayesian method  fuzzy loss rate  dynamic risk analysis  separator
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