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深水防喷器组井口连接器可靠性研究
刘永红,刘增凯,蔡宝平,田晓洁,纪仁杰
0
(中国石油大学机电工程学院,山东青岛 266580)
摘要:
通过分析深水防喷器组位于井口时井口连接器的工作状态和重要失效模式,建立水下井口连接器的Markov模型,得到计算系统瞬态和稳态可靠性指标的公式。以墨西哥湾的防喷器可靠性数据为例,定量求解水下井口连接器的瞬态、稳态可用度和平均无故障时间MTTF,研究模型中状态转移概率对系统的稳态可用度和MTTF的影响。结果表明:水下井口连接器具有很高的稳态可用度和MTTF;降低水下井口连接器在正常运行期间发生“外部泄露”和“解锁失败”故障的概率可以有效地提高系统稳态可用度和MTTF,而在测试期间发生故障的概率对系统性能的影响较小。
关键词:  水下井口连接器  深水防喷器组  可靠性  平均无故障时间
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-5005.2013.05.020
投稿时间:2013-06-20
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51309240); 国家“863”高技术研究发展计划项目(2013AA09A220);教育部“长江学者和创新团队发展计划”项目(IRT1086);中央高校基本科研业务费专项 (14CX06052A)
Reliability research on subsea wellhead connector of blowout preventer stack
LIU Yong-hong,LIU Zeng-kai,CAI Bao-ping,TIAN Xiao-jie,JI Ren-jie
(College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering in China University of Petroleum, Qingdao 266580, China)
Abstract:
Markov model of subsea wellhead connector was presented by analyzing its work status and main failure modes when the blowout preventer (BOP) stack was on wellhead, and the equations to calculate the reliability index were derived. Transient-state and steady-state availability, and mean time to failure (MTTF) were obtained based on the reliability data of the BOP in the Gulf of Mexico. The effects of state transition probability in the model on the steady-state availability and MTTF of the system were studied. The research results show that subsea wellhead connector has very high steady-state availability and MTTF. In addition, decreasing the probability of external leakage and unlocking failure can effectively improve the steady-state availability and MTTF of system, and the failure probability during the test period has little effects on system performance.
Key words:  subsea wellhead connector  subsea blowout preventer  reliability  mean time to failure
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