| 摘要: |
| 针对某炼油厂炼制中东进口原油后常压蒸馏装置设备冲刷腐蚀明显加重的问题,在常压蒸馏塔顶换热器入口 分配管弯头处进行定点测厚，对其厚度减薄情况进行监测。弯头壁厚数列是准光滑序列,它的一次累加生成具有准 指数规律，可以建立灰色微分方程。针对此灰色腐蚀系统建立GM( 1,1)模型，利用此模型对原始数据序列进行模拟 的平均相对误差为丨.90% ,而通过对原始数据序列加上100进行平移，然后再从预测结果中扣除增加量的方法得到 改进的GM( 1,丨)模型，平均相对误差为1.31%，模型精度得到提高。采用全部数据建立改进的GM( 1,1)模型，对弯 头的壁厚进行模拟,对未来可能的壁厚进行区间预测。结果表明:弯头在2 a的使用期内是安全的，3 a后弯头极有 可能蚀穿;采用灰色系统理论对冲刷严重的部位进行寿命预测是可行的,有助于制定合理的检修周期，保障设备的 安全。 |
| 关键词: 腐蚀预测 灰色系统模型 GM(1,1)模型 弯头 |
| DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1673-5005.2010.02.023 |
| 分类号:TE 62; TE 985. 9 |
| 基金项目:国家质量监督检验检疫总局科技项目(2005QK112) |
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| Grey system prediction of corrosion on oil atmospheric distillation equipment |
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WANG Zheng-fang1,2,WANG Yong1,LIU Xiu-hua3
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(1. College of Mechanical and Electronic Engineering in China University of Petroleum, Dongying 257061，China;2.School of Mechanical Engineering in Shandong University，Ji'nan 250061, China;3. Boiler & Pressure Vessel Inspection Institute of Zibo，Zibo 2550301China)
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| Abstract: |
| A refinery plant processes Middle East crude oil, so the equipment is exposed to washing erosion seriously. The elbow on the entrance of the atmospheric distillation tower top exchangers was always eroded. The thickness of elbow was measured every month, and the thickness change was monitored. The thickness series is quasi smooth sequence, and GM( 1,1) model was established by grey system theory according to quasi exponent law. The average relative error is 1 90% using the model. Adding a number 100 to the thickness series of the elbow, then subtracting it from the result, the improved GM( 1,,1) model was established. The average relative error is 1. 31% , and the prediction precision was increased. The full data were used to create an improved GM (1,1) model to predict the thickness of elbow in the future. The results show that the elbow life can reach 2 a, but can not reach 3 a. It is feasible to predict the elbow life using the grey system model for eroding conosion, can help for setting down overhaul period and ensure the safety of equipment. |
| Key words: corrosion prediction grey system model GM( 1,1) model elbow |
