| 摘要: |
| 对压力信息具有不确定性的井,利用概率分析方法确定地层压力预测模型中参数的概率分布状态，通过直接 理论计算或蒙特卡洛方法得出含有可信度的地层压力剖面;利用压力约束准则得出具有吋信度的安全钻井液密度 窗口，提出依据含有可信度压力剖面的自上而下和自下而上的井身结构设计方法。该方法避免了传统设计方法对 关井井涌和压差长钻深度进行试算和验证的过程，可得出连续的套管J2次及下深范围，实井的实际下深均在设计 范围内，预测效果较好。 |
| 关键词: 压力不确定性 深水钻井 套管层次及下深 可信度 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家“863”计划项目(2006AA09A106);中国石化集闭资助项目(JP0712) |
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| An approach to casing program design with formation pressure uncertainties |
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GUAN Zhi-chuan1,KE Ke1,LU Bao-ping2
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(1. College of Petroleum Engineering in China University of Petroleum, Dongying 257061, China ;2. International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation, SIN OPEC, Beijing 100191, China)
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| Abstract: |
| For the wells whose pressure information has a certain extent uncertainties，the distribution of parameters in pressure prediction models was determined by using probability analysis theory and different kinds of formation pressure profiles with credibility were established through theoretical calculation or Monte Carlo simulation. Casing program design methods with credibility of top to bottom and bottom to top were presented based on the safe density window of drilling fluid with credibility obtained by the pressure constraint criterion. The methods can give continuous casing points range without any test calculation process for shut-in kicking and differential pressure sticking included in the traditional design method. The practical results of a case well are in the designed range, the prediction results are satisfied. |
| Key words: pressure uncertainties deep water drilling casing program design credibility |
